I know you posted this before the Connacht game,  but I don’t have the same confidence as you.  I think they all those teams will start to hit their stride at the business end of the season.  Only zebra I would be confident with (ish).  I would be happy with a top 4 finish,  maybe I’m pessimistic but I think our lack of depth is going to catch up with us

It’s the hope that kills you, though after the ladys loss in Glasgow we still have a chance, all be it, we’ll need other things to go our way.  It’s quite the change from last season to be in a position where we stand the chance of getting home knock out rugby at the end of the league season.

So still 3rd, but last week 12 points ahead on 9th place now we are 7 points ahead of 9th.  It really getting tight in that part of the table.  I think Glasgow, Stormers, Leinster will be in the top 3, and 4th is realistically  the best we can get looking at the fixtures. Cardiff could catch us as I think they should beat Scarlets and Ospreys,  but if we get enough bonus points we should be ok. The Munster game could be key for them getting ahead of us and into the top 4 as you fancy them to beat Connacht and lions.  But the lions have 3 home games in a row now, with the dragons next, they could sneak ahead of us.  
Connacht and the Bulls are too far back at this stage, so a realistic worse case would be 7th place

5 points against Zebra is must!

Current rankings

Above is last 4 games of the top 11 teams that could realistically make the top 8.  I have greyed out teams that are not in the top 11, to highlight how hard/ easy the run in is.  What jumps out at me is that Bulls and Sharks have fairly easy runs so should make there way up that table ( The sharks are starting to play well at the right time of the season).  Alot of the top teams are playing each other, hard to predict how its going to head up, but I think we will need a win or 2 in the last 4 games, but hard to say where we can pick up the wins, might have said Munster but they really bounced back against the Bulls, they might be finding their form again.  I suspect Leinster will go up the gears at this time of year and really don’t want to be playing Stormers and Glasgow needing a win (granted we are at home), but then maybe we should be winning those home games, what the point squeaking into the payoffs if we can’t win home games against the competition. 

If we can win our home games I think we finish in the top two, though I accept that that’s a big if.  Our game against the ladyboys is immediately after the euro rounds the next two weeks, so it’ll be quite interesting to see what sort of teams are picked.  Will Leinster pick their strongest team in the two euro games and said their bibs north, or will they expect us to be the toughest test in the next few games and prioritise Ravenhill.  Likewise with Richie, the Challenge Cup is probably are best chance of silverware this year (though substantial second favourites in a hypothetical final against Stade), so does Richie pick the strongest team all the way through that, prioritise trying to get home knock out games for the league, or will we see a gradual rotation of our front liners, where we pick 10-12 of our strongest 15 to start every match hence forth.  I suspect the latter, but it will be very interesting to see what his thinking is.

After the early season highs, our form has dropped a bit at precisely the wrong time, but if we can rediscover our mojo it could be a very exciting end to the season.  I think the other three teams at the top are better than us, but at home, I think we’re in with a shout against anyone.

Over the last three seasons it has needed 58, 63, 65 and 59 points respectively to get fourth in the table.  So we probably need at least another – what? – 12 points to have a decent chance at that?  That looks like a difficult challenge unless we get some luck with injuries.  Two interpros and games against the top two teams in the league 😬 

Anyway, I’m happy we are so far ahead of this time last year.  Getting a home QF would be well ahead of expectations for this season.

In terms of prioritising, money is going to be the main factor, but both the URC and the Challenge cup don’t have much if any prize money, so the real money is home game ticket sales.  Champions cup sells more tickets than challenge, so firstly need a top 8 finish.  Right now ulster a 8 points of 1st and 8 point above 9th, right in the middle.  Looking back the last few years 8th place was between 48-50 points, you would like to think we could get at least get a few bonus points in the last 4 games, so top 8 looks fairly good  the moment.  

So that leaves the target of top 4 to get a 1 home game for the playoffs and top 2 to get 2 home games.  While in the Challenge cup if we beat Ospreys we get another home game and maybe another after that (unless its against  Benetton).  

If we are thinking purely money, it makes more sense to go full strength against the Ospreys in Challenge cup for now get get another home game.

After the Leinster games and the potential injuries, I’m more worried about stay in the top 8 than the top 4. Mathematically Ospreys and Sharks can make the top 8, but realistically there are 9 teams fight for 8 places.  Fair play to Connacht for beating the Stormers, they are coming into form just at the right time. This weekends results worked out really well for Leinster,  all the teams in front of them didn’t get any points.

I could see us losing the next 3 games, we really need a to get few bonus points to get over the line,  if we had gotten 1 more try on Friday those 2 bonus points would have made a big difference.  Most teams will be playing other contenders, so they will be taking point of each other ( Bulls are the only ones that are not, could see them shoot up the table).

Pos Team               P   W   D   L   PF   PA   PD     BP  Pts
----------------------------------------------------------------
1   Stormers           16  12  0   4   450  284  +166   8   56
2   Glasgow            16  11  0   5   413  299  +114   11  55
3   Lions              16  10  1   5   508  418  +90    11  53
4   Leinster           16  10  0   6   416  349  +67    13  53
5   Munster            16  10  0   6   365  333  +32    11  51
6   Cardiff            16  10  0   6   314  316  -2     10  50
7   Bulls              16  10  0   6   467  368  +99    9   49
8   Ulster             16  9   0   7   434  356  +78    11  47
9   Connacht           16  8   0   8   390  383  +7     12  44
10  Sharks             16  6   1   9   367  402  -35    10  36
11  Ospreys            16  6   2   8   335  366  -31    7   35
12  Edinburgh          16  6   0   10  333  398  -65    9   33
13  Benetton           16  6   2   8   301  402  -101   5   33
14  Dragons            16  3   3   10  300  422  -122   7   25
15  Scarlets           16  4   1   11  306  398  -92    6   24
16  Zebre              16  2   0   14  274  479  -205   7   15

Team      | R15           | R16
-----------------------------------------------
Glasgow   | Cardiff       | Ulster (A)
Stormers  | Ulster (A)    | Cardiff (A)
Ulster    | Stormers      | Glasgow
Leinster  | Lions         | Ospreys
Lions     | Leinster (A)  | Munster (A)
Cardiff   | Glasgow (A)   | Stormers
Munster   | Connacht (A)  | Lions
Bulls     | Zebre         | Benetton
Connacht  | Munster       | Edinburgh (A)

Well its what we feared and other results didn’t go our way either.  Its looking like a fight between Ulster, Connacht and Cardiff to stay in the top 8.  Bulls have 2 easy home games, can’t see them dropping the ball in both.  Munster are 6 points above 9th,  I think they will either the Connacht or Lions game which would be enough.  Connacht are in good form and should win against Edinburgh ( even Munster) so they could leap us.   

We need 7 points in our last 2 games to guarantee top 8,  which is doable,  if some of our injuries recover, both Glasgow and Stormers have had a dip in form recently ( the only 2 teams that are mathematically safe in the top 8), which goes in our favour, but they will both want to stay in the top 4 for the play offs.

Not entirely related to the run in, to be honest I’ve pretty much given up on the league after our showing against the lady’s, but if we want to qualify for the champions cup next year I think winning any one of our next three games should be enough. Obviously, given the choice It’d be the montpellier match, but would he nice to go to Spain, with the bonus for winning being helping Connacht (or similar) qualify rather than ourselves.

Of the away weekends we could get in the league my preference would be Glasgow, though not sure I’d be able to get another pass for travel from the domestic boss after going to Bilbao the weekend before.

After the game on Saturday I was feeling better about things but seeing the injuries i’m worried again, we are bound to get more injures over the next few games ( the guys have played a lot of back to back games) and while we are not at crisis point right now, it feels we are only 1 of 2 injuries away from that again. 

I sure Connacht will beat Edinburgh  in their last game, so in my head they are already at 49 points, and I could see them beating Munster, they are in great forum while Munster are not, and while I could see Cardiff losing both games they could 3 few bonus points leaving needing more that 5 points to get above them.

Its crazy there is only 9point between 1st and 8th,  I think if we win both last games with bonus points we still could get into the top 4 ( depending on other results)

edit: Glasgows Adam Hastings has been banned for the last 2 league games, good for us but also good for Cardiff, 

If we manage to win on Friday it means we’d be able to rest anyone carrying knocks against Glasgow.

Agree it is far from ideal that the list is mounting, but would be hopeful for the final we’d have Stu and McCann back.  It sounds like Stockdales season might be over, but fortunately I don’t think Kok coming in to replace him weakens us too much, it just means we can’t afford to lose any more players in the back three.

Getting 5 points on tomorrow would be huge, but a big ask.  2 losing bonus points might not be a disaster ( depending on other results), but puts the pressure on for the Glasgow game.  Any less than that we are in big trouble I think.

Stockdale might be back for the final but looks like McCann and McCloskey are out for the rest of the league games at least

Ulster head coach insists Ireland star is ‘definitely not’ ruled out of Challenge Cup Final while prop returns for Stormers clash | Belfast Telegraph

“The lads are progressing. Jacob is having surgery on his face but at this moment in time he’s definitely not ruled out of the Final,” commented Murphy.

“Dave McCann and Stu (McCloskey) are progressing well. There’s no real update on their availability for the Final. We definitely won’t see them over the next couple of weeks but that’s going to be an ongoing daily progress to see where they get to.”

Pos Team               P   W   D   L      PD     BP  Pts
----------------------------------------------------------------
1   Glasgow            17  12  0   5     +137   12  60
2   Stormers           17  12  1   4     +166   9   59
3   Leinster           17  11  0   6     +91    14  58
4   Bulls              17  11  0   6     +134   10  54
5   Lions              17  10  1   6     +66    11  53
6   Munster            17  10  0   7     +13    11  51
7   Cardiff            17  10  0   7     -25    10  50
8   Ulster             17  9   1   7     +78    12  50
9   Connacht           17  10  0   8     +26    12  49


-----------------------------------------------

Ulster    v Glasgow
Cardiff   v Stormers
Munster   v Lions
Bulls     v Benetton
Connacht  v Edinburgh 

So best we can finish is 5th because no matter what happens either the lions or Munster will be ahead of us.  I can’t see the Bulls losing to Benetton at home,  so realistically 6th is the best we can do.

If we win with 5 point we are safe, a 4 point win might not be enough because if we are drawing with either Cardiff or Connacht they will rank higher based on more wins.  

I think Connacht will beat Edinburgh with 5 points and Muster will beat Lions,  so I think Stormers could do us a favour and beat Cardiff ( no losing bonus points) and we just need a  point or two to get over the line.  Friday night is going to be a nail biter as Cardiff v Stormers game is on at the same time