I thought I’d make a post about the league run-in this season, as I think it has the potential to be quite exciting. We’re two thirds of the way through the league season and the current standings are:
Pos Team P W D L PF PA PD BP Pts ------------------------------------------------ 1 Glasgow 12 9 0 3 320 170 +150 9 45 2 Stormers 12 9 0 3 316 204 +112 5 41 3 Ulster 12 8 0 4 352 248 +104 9 41 4 Leinster 12 8 0 4 308 242 +66 9 41 5 Cardiff 12 8 0 4 240 210 +30 8 40 6 Munster 12 8 0 4 248 225 +23 7 39 7 Lions 12 6 1 5 325 342 -17 7 33 8 Bulls 12 6 0 6 304 270 +34 6 30 9 Ospreys 12 5 2 5 260 273 -13 5 29 10 Connacht 12 5 0 7 280 300 -20 9 29 11 Sharks 12 4 1 7 256 333 -77 6 24 12 Edinburgh 12 4 0 8 230 260 -30 7 23 13 Benetton 12 4 2 6 216 281 -65 3 23 14 Dragons 12 2 3 7 227 286 -59 6 20 15 Scarlets 12 3 1 8 210 290 -80 2 16 16 Zebre 12 2 0 10 197 365 -168 4 12
While the run ins of the top six teams look like this:
Team | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 | R17 | R18 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glasgow | Leinster | Treviso | Lions (A) | Stormers (A) | Cardiff | Ulster (A) Stormers | Dragons | Edinburgh | Connacht | Glasgow | Ulster (A) | Cardiff (A) Ulster | Connacht | Zebre (A) | Leinster | Munster (A) | Stormers | Glasgow Leinster | Glasgow (A) | Scarlets | Ulster (A) | Treviso (A) | Lions | Ospreys Cardiff | Bulls (A) | Sharks (A) | Scarlets (A) | Ospreys | Glasgow (A) | Stormers Munster | Sharks (A) | Bulls (A) | Treviso (A) | Ulster | Connacht (A) | Lion
As I see it, Ulster have a very realistic chance of topping the league, and in my opinion that should be the target, potentially at the expense of resting players in Europe. Of our remaining fixtures, I think we’d be favourites for all of them except Munster away (and maybe the Ladys coming North), if we can get 5 from 6, beating Leinster and the Stomers, both of who we have at home, I think that should see us home, assumiing we can keep up with the bonus points.
Unless Glasgow have an incredible tour of South Africa, i think the three teams with a realistic chance of topping the league are us, Leinster and the Stomers, it could well end up coming down to points difference, with us currently 8 points behind the Stormers and 38 ahead of Leinster on that front.
I know you posted this before the Connacht game, but I don’t have the same confidence as you. I think they all those teams will start to hit their stride at the business end of the season. Only zebra I would be confident with (ish). I would be happy with a top 4 finish, maybe I’m pessimistic but I think our lack of depth is going to catch up with us
It’s the hope that kills you, though after the ladys loss in Glasgow we still have a chance, all be it, we’ll need other things to go our way. It’s quite the change from last season to be in a position where we stand the chance of getting home knock out rugby at the end of the league season.
So still 3rd, but last week 12 points ahead on 9th place now we are 7 points ahead of 9th. It really getting tight in that part of the table. I think Glasgow, Stormers, Leinster will be in the top 3, and 4th is realistically the best we can get looking at the fixtures. Cardiff could catch us as I think they should beat Scarlets and Ospreys, but if we get enough bonus points we should be ok. The Munster game could be key for them getting ahead of us and into the top 4 as you fancy them to beat Connacht and lions. But the lions have 3 home games in a row now, with the dragons next, they could sneak ahead of us.
Connacht and the Bulls are too far back at this stage, so a realistic worse case would be 7th place
5 points against Zebra is must!
Current rankings
| Rank | Team | Played | Won | Lost | Drawn | For | Against | Points difference | Bonus | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
Glasgow Warriors
|
14
|
|
3
|
0
|
389
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
2
|
Cape Town Stormers
|
14
|
|
3
|
|
378
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
3
|
Ulster
|
14
|
9
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
4
|
Leinster
|
14
|
9
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
|
|
5
|
Johannesburg Lions
|
14
|
8
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
|
|
6
|
Cardiff Rugby
|
14
|
8
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
|
|
7
|
Munster
|
14
|
8
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
|
|
8
|
Pretoria Bulls
|
14
|
8
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
|
|
9
|
Connacht
|
14
|
7
|
7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
Durban Sharks
|
14
|
6
|
7
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
11
|
Ospreys
|
14
|
5
|
7
|
2
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
|
12
|
Benetton
|
14
|
5
|
7
|
2
|
|
|
|
4
|
|
|
13
|
Edinburgh
|
14
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
14
|
Scarlets
|
14
|
4
|
9
|
1
|
|
|
|
3
|
|
|
15
|
Dragons
|
14
|
2
|
9
|
3
|
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
16
|
Zebre
|
14
|
2
|
12
|
0
|
|
4
|
|
4
|
|
| Team | R15 | R16 | R17 | R18 |
| Glasgow | Lions (A) | Stormers (A) | Cardiff | Ulster (A) |
| Stormers | Connacht | Glasgow | Ulster (A) | Cardiff (A) |
| Ulster | Leinster | Munster (A) | Stormers | Glasgow |
| Leinster | Ulster (A) | Treviso (A) | Lions | Ospreys |
| Lions | Glasgow | Connacht | Leinster (A) | Munster (A) |
| Cardiff | Scarlets (A) | Ospreys | Glasgow (A) | Stormers |
| Munster | Treviso (A) | Ulster | Connacht (A) | Lion |
| Bulls | Dragons (A) | Scarlets (A) | Zebre | Benetton |
| Connacht | Stormers (A) | Lions (A) | Munster | Edinburgh (A) |
| Sharks |
|
Edinburgh (A) | Benetton | Zebre |
Above is last 4 games of the top 11 teams that could realistically make the top 8. I have greyed out teams that are not in the top 11, to highlight how hard/ easy the run in is. What jumps out at me is that Bulls and Sharks have fairly easy runs so should make there way up that table ( The sharks are starting to play well at the right time of the season). Alot of the top teams are playing each other, hard to predict how its going to head up, but I think we will need a win or 2 in the last 4 games, but hard to say where we can pick up the wins, might have said Munster but they really bounced back against the Bulls, they might be finding their form again. I suspect Leinster will go up the gears at this time of year and really don’t want to be playing Stormers and Glasgow needing a win (granted we are at home), but then maybe we should be winning those home games, what the point squeaking into the payoffs if we can’t win home games against the competition.
If we can win our home games I think we finish in the top two, though I accept that that’s a big if. Our game against the ladyboys is immediately after the euro rounds the next two weeks, so it’ll be quite interesting to see what sort of teams are picked. Will Leinster pick their strongest team in the two euro games and said their bibs north, or will they expect us to be the toughest test in the next few games and prioritise Ravenhill. Likewise with Richie, the Challenge Cup is probably are best chance of silverware this year (though substantial second favourites in a hypothetical final against Stade), so does Richie pick the strongest team all the way through that, prioritise trying to get home knock out games for the league, or will we see a gradual rotation of our front liners, where we pick 10-12 of our strongest 15 to start every match hence forth. I suspect the latter, but it will be very interesting to see what his thinking is.
After the early season highs, our form has dropped a bit at precisely the wrong time, but if we can rediscover our mojo it could be a very exciting end to the season. I think the other three teams at the top are better than us, but at home, I think we’re in with a shout against anyone.
Over the last three seasons it has needed 58, 63, 65 and 59 points respectively to get fourth in the table. So we probably need at least another – what? – 12 points to have a decent chance at that? That looks like a difficult challenge unless we get some luck with injuries. Two interpros and games against the top two teams in the league 😬
Anyway, I’m happy we are so far ahead of this time last year. Getting a home QF would be well ahead of expectations for this season.
In terms of prioritising, money is going to be the main factor, but both the URC and the Challenge cup don’t have much if any prize money, so the real money is home game ticket sales. Champions cup sells more tickets than challenge, so firstly need a top 8 finish. Right now ulster a 8 points of 1st and 8 point above 9th, right in the middle. Looking back the last few years 8th place was between 48-50 points, you would like to think we could get at least get a few bonus points in the last 4 games, so top 8 looks fairly good the moment.
So that leaves the target of top 4 to get a 1 home game for the playoffs and top 2 to get 2 home games. While in the Challenge cup if we beat Ospreys we get another home game and maybe another after that (unless its against Benetton).
If we are thinking purely money, it makes more sense to go full strength against the Ospreys in Challenge cup for now get get another home game.
